NEWCASTLE United fans were reassured last night that their club would not "do a Leeds United" and spiral towards financial apocalypse following their Champions League catastrophe.

Although Newcastle United missed out on a projected £12m jackpot from qualifying for the lucrative first stage, a sports finance expert insisted they were in a stronger position than Leeds when their fall from grace began two years ago.

Leeds, more than £78m in debt, have embarked on a frenetic programme of asset-stripping that has destroyed the team which reached the 2001 Champions League semi-finals.

But Dr Bill Gerrard, of Leeds University Business School, promised such a scenario would not confront Newcastle unless they went "crazy" in the transfer market this season - and then finished outside the top four of the Premiership.

He said: "Missing out on the Champions League is a serious blow and Newcastle will need to budget accordingly.

"But Newcastle have been a lot more canny financially than Leeds were. Newcastle invested in bricks and mortar by developing their stadium, while Leeds took a £60m securitisation to invest in players and to cover their operating losses.

"No big club can afford to lose an expected revenue of £10m-plus, but at this stage Newcastle fans shouldn't be concerned that they're about to do a Leeds United.

"When Leeds didn't get into the Champions League for the 2001-02 season, they went out and spent another £19m on Seth Johnson and Robbie Fowler.

"They already had a level of wages and investment in the squad that was geared to the Champions League, and they took the gambler's strategy of chasing their losses.

"The crunch came when, for the second year, they failed to get in the Champions League and were left with a cost base that was only sustainable if they had Champions League football.

"But the figures for 2002 show Newcastle were running a pretty tight ship and that was the year they pipped Leeds to Champions League qualification. That year, they spent £20m less than Leeds on wages.

"Their wage bill has gone up since then, with the likes of Jonathan Woodgate and Lee Bowyer coming in, but there's no sense that Newcastle have put their financial future on the line.

"It would be absolutely crazy for Newcastle United to build up a wage bill that could only be paid with Champions League football every year.

"That's what Leeds did, but I have no indication that Newcastle have gone that way.

"Not qualifying will obviously mean Sir Bobby Robson will be more constrained in the transfer market, but a club like Newcastle can stand the shock of not being in the Champions League this year.

"The problems would kick in if they continue to spend big and didn't get into it next year."

While Newcastle are on a firm financial footing, Gerrard warned they would be left behind on the field by English football's elite if they did not make next season's Champions League.

Any possibility of Sir Bobby Robson strengthening his squad before Sunday's transfer deadline was snuffed out by the defeat by Partizan Belgrade.

Now, they must maintain their status as a top-four club this season - or face slipping down the Premiership pecking order.

Gerrard said: "The longer-term impact of losing the qualifier is they will fall behind Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea.

"You've got to stay in the race to stand still.

"Look at Leeds: they've fallen so far behind because they needed Champions League football to keep themselves financially viable.

"Newcastle's problem would be if they failed to get in the Champions League next season.

"Then, they would find it very difficult to keep up with Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, and possibly even Liverpool.

"Newcastle would find it very difficult to maintain a strong squad.

"They'd see their best players wanted by clubs that could offer Champions League football.

"It can be a vicious circle and one where Newcastle would end up in the second tier of the Premiership, whereas over the last couple of years they've pushed themselves into the top tier as contenders for a Champions League place."