IAIN Duncan Smith may not quite be dead in the water, but he is gasping for air.

Tory MPs must be very clear when they vote on their leader's fate today. They must back him overwhelmingly, or sack him unequivocally.

A half-way house which gives Mr Duncan Smith a technical victory will leave him a lame duck leader of a party which hasn't a clue about where it wants to go.

He may have remained publicly defiant last night, but he must know in his heart that the clear-cut support he needs is not going to be forthcoming.

A spokesman for bookmaker William Hill suggested that Mr Duncan Smith has as much chance of winning the vote as Spurs have of winning the Premiership.

We'd go further than that. He has as much chance of surviving as Shildon have of winning the FA Cup - nice dream though that is.

So who comes next? The Tory Party should put itself in the shoes of their Labour counterparts and ask the question: Who would they least like to win the leadership contest?

A victory for Kenneth Clarke would make hearts flutter in Labour circles because he has the heavyweight clout which has become a rarity among Tory MPs.

Michael Portillo has another rare quality among Tory MPs - charisma. He would have Labour in a flap because he has skilfully used television appearances to build a 'decent bloke' image.

They are the men the Labour Party fears most but they are unlikely to be chosen because they have made too many enemies among their own ranks.

The Tories played safe with Iain Duncan Smith and it didn't work. The safe option this time appears to be Michael Howard, but is he really going to turn a lacklustre party into a credible alternative government? We don't think so.

This country desperately needs a dynamic Opposition to challenge a Government which isn't trusted.

The Tories must think big. They cannot afford to get it wrong again.