Political Editor Chris Lloyd looks at where Iain Duncan Smith went wrong and where the Tories go now under Michael Howard.

EVER since the disposal of Margaret Thatcher 13 years ago, the Conservative Party has been led by someone it only wanted as leader because he was not someone else.

John Major was elected because he was not the traitorous Michael Heseltine; William Hague followed him because he was not Ken Clarke; Iain Duncan Smith followed the Richmond MP because he, too, was not Mr Clarke, and he had the added bonus of not being Michael Portillo.

Mr Duncan Smith also turned out not to be very good. He was a poor public performer, coughing nervously at first and, to the last, sounding embarrassingly wooden. His final conference speech was a dreadful piece of oratory, even if it did fool the activists in the hall into performing 20 standing ovations.

He was also a poor organiser, with Conservative Central Office littered with so many sackings that the party - on the verge of bankruptcy - is paying £500,000 in golden goodbyes. Some of those who have worked closely with him have become so disillusioned that they alleged Mr Duncan Smith improperly paid his wife £15,000 of taxpayers' money.

Mr Duncan Smith was unfortunate, though, that his appointment two years ago was immediately overshadowed by September 11.

His military background and his Tory inclinations forced him to support Tony Blair's partnership with George Bush, so even while Mr Blair's popularity was falling, the Tory leader was supporting the Prime Minister's most unpopular policy: the war against Iraq.

It is Mr Blair's decline, rather than Mr Duncan Smith's success, that has brought the two parties to parity in the polls. The Tories won 32 per cent of the vote under Mr Major, 33 per cent under Mr Hague and little more than 30 per cent under Mr Duncan Smith.

Now the Tories have the chance to choose someone they really do want to lead them. Unfortunately, their choice is very limited. The candidates that the country would most want - Mr Hague, Mr Clarke and Mr Portillo - have all ruled themselves out.

David Davis at least had the good sense last night to stand aside as well, realising that he was too unknown and unlikely ever to challenge Mr Blair's charisma.

Then there's Tim Yeo, who is known only for fathering an illegitimate child; Theresa May, who is known only for her footwear; and John Redwood, who is known only for being an alien.

There are a couple of whippersnappers in Liam Fox and Oliver Letwin and an amiable toff - Michael Ancram, the heir to the 12th Marquess of Lothian - but none are likely to make an unforgettable mark by the time of the next election.

Which leaves Michael Howard. Now 62, he has re-invented himself as a grandfatherly figure who has the forensic skills to tellingly dissect Mr Blair's failures. He's even got trendy new glasses.

But, in an age where youth is king, he'll be picking up his bus pass as he fights his first election, and Labour will be reminding the voters of his role in planning the hated poll tax, and of he was so hated at the Home Office that Ann Widdecombe devastatingly said he had "something of the night about him", and how he was part of the sleazy, hated Major government.

But Mr Howard will get the top job because, this time around, there's not anybody else. It is to be hoped that he can lead the Tories to a dignified defeat at the election and groom a young successor - Dr Fox or Mr Letwin - for a proper assault on Labour sometime around 2009.