SELDOM has a Prime Minister with such a handsome majority faced such a testing couple of days.

Tony Blair, with a nominal majority of 161, goes right to the wire tonight in his bid to avoid defeat over university tuition fees.

With such a high stakes game of poker taking place, the outcome is hard to call. And as soon as we know the score on university funding plans, Lord Hutton's report on the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly will deliver his eagerly-awaited judgement.

Unless Hutton unearths a criticism which is personally devastating to Tony Blair - and that does not seem likely - the MP for Sedgefield will still be Prime Minister by next weekend. Even if he loses tonight's vote on tuition fees, which is possible, he will overwhelmingly win when the inevitable vote of no confidence is then put to MPs.

The key question will be how much damage has been done in the process. Will he have retained his authority within his own party and will the country still trust him? After all, he faces the most damning accusation it is possible to level at a Prime Minister: that he took his country to war under false pretences.

Whatever the result of tonight's vote, Mr Blair knows it has been a desperate struggle to impose his will on his own party. How many "last-minute concessions" have been required to give him even a fighting chance of quelling the rebellion? It has been a long, hard grind.

And whatever the conclusions of Lord Hutton, Mr Blair knows that Dr David Kelly's death has caused serious damage to a Government which justified the war against Iraq with talk of weapons of mass destruction which show no signs of being found.

Tony Blair will end the week as Prime Minister, of that there is no doubt. But by then we will all have a clearer view of whether we want him to carry on leading the country.