Blair on the brink as crucial vote looms

The Prime Minister spent 90 minutes last night trying to woo the doubters and will return to the task today after Downing Street admitted the vote was "too close to call".

Mr Blair's official spokesman, asked yesterday if No 10 was confident of winning tonight's crunch vote on the Higher Education Bill, said: "We hope so. But we don't know so."

Complex games of bluff and counter-bluff were being played out last night at Westminster in a high stakes poker game unheard of for a Government with a majority of 161.

If Mr Blair loses tonight's vote, it will be only the fourth time in the past 100 years that a Government with so vast a majority has lost a Bill on its Commons second reading, which deals with a measure's fundamental principles.

Chancellor Gordon Brown yesterday threw his weight publicly behind the Prime Minister again, despite suspicions that some of his supporters are orchestrating the "no" vote campaign to wound Mr Blair in a crucial week that will test his authority.

Lord Hutton reports tomorrow on the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly, with Mr Blair, his Downing Street staff - past and present - and ministers, such as Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, effectively in the dock.

The Chancellor told a London conference on enterprise: "I want us to be the best educated, best trained workforce, and tomorrow's much-needed reform of university finance - which I urge all MPs and all Labour MPs to support - is another vital step towards that goal."

Education Secretary Charles Clarke has spent days fine-tuning concessions on the Bill, and may yet announce more in the Commons today.

But, so far, his assurances on capping fees at £3,000 a year unless both Houses of Parliament agree, and the promise of an independent review of the system in 2009, have not convinced many wavering MPs.

Mr Blair's spokesman said: "You can certainly take it the Prime Minister has been speaking to colleagues over the last few weeks and over the weekend - and that will continue today.

"The Prime Minister has put in, and is continuing to put in, a lot of effort to ensure that the Government's legislation is carried."

Asked about Mr Blair's confidence of winning the vote, the spokesman replied: "We hope so. But we don't know so.

"As things stood last week the numbers were not there, and that's been well documented.

"A lot of MPs went back over the weekend to their constituencies. No doubt they will have spoken to their constituents and they will come back today.

"The short answer is it's too close to call. I wouldn't want to make any prediction."

As the Prime Minister was talking to backbenchers last night in his room in the Commons, Mr Blair's spokesman said: "I would imagine he will be speaking to people tomorrow as well.

"The dialogue is pretty continuous from the Government side."

The Prime Minister will be at Mr Clarke's side on the Commons front bench today when he introduces the Bill, and ministers have been ordered back from foreign engagements to be present at the vote at 7pm.

Frank Cook, Labour MP for Stockton North, who had signed the motion opposing the fees, said he was considering abstaining in the vote.

He said: "I want to see how the debate goes and listen to what everybody else is saying before deciding whether to abstain. If the Bill is passed and goes into committee, then it's inevitable that more concessions will be made before we reach report stage."

Mr Blair received another blow last night when he was informed that the three SDLP MPs from Northern Ireland will be voting against the introduction of tuition fees.

John Hume, Seamus Mallon and Eddie McGrady announced they had informed the Government they will be voting with the rebels.

Mr Hume said: "It is astonishing that a Labour government is introducing such proposals. This plan will be vehemently opposed by the SDLP in Westminster."

* Odds on Tony Blair leaving No 10 were slashed by bookies yesterday. Mr Blair is now 12/1 to depart before the end of the month, down from 20/1, with William Hill.