RARELY are presidential elections in the United States won or lost on foreign policy issues. Americans tend to vote according to the health of their bank balance and the strength of their stock market portfolio.

This November's election, however, may break with tradition. International affairs, in the shape of the war on terror, are likely to dominate campaign proceedings.

With a less than robust economy during his time in the White House, President Bush is happy to switch attention from domestic issues.

He is content to go to the polls as the President who valiantly led his nation in the aftermath of September 11, as the President who eliminated the Taliban, as the President who ousted Saddam Hussein, and as the President who took a brave stand against terrorism.

Events, however, are conspiring against him.

The growing tension between Israel and Palestine threatens to undermine his efforts to be a peace broker in the Middle East.

The conclusion of the congressional commission, that his administration ignored the warning signs of the dangers posed by al Qaida ahead of September 11, threatens to undermine his efforts to portray himself as the staunch and consistent defender against international terrorism.

And the continuing violence, unrest and US deaths in Iraq threaten to undermine the notion of a successful military mission in Iraq.

Like his father, he may be destined to lead his nation to victory in a Gulf War, but be booted out of office after just one term.

This month's Spanish election demonstrated the vulnerability of governments which place so much of their credibility on foreign policy.

The re-election of President Bush may not necessarily depend on his own record in office, or the strength of the Democratic campaign, but on the fickle nature of international affairs over which he has no control and the confrontation with international terrorists on which he has chosen to stake his reputation.