THE next seven days will determine the fate of Newcastle's season but, perhaps more importantly, they will also go a long way towards determining how the club develops over the next two or three years.

The disappointment of Thursday night's meek surrender in Marseille is still fresh in the memory but, while reaching the UEFA Cup final would have ensured the season finished on a considerable high, in many ways it would have given an unwarranted rosy hue to a campaign that has regularly painted an altogether more unwelcome picture.

Despite the considerable kudos of reaching their first European semi-final for 35 years, it is difficult not to conclude that Newcastle have taken a step backwards over the last 12 months.

This time last year, the Magpies were finishing the season already assured of a Champions League place following a campaign that had seen them punching their weight with Europe's finest.

Sir Bobby Robson's side looked to be within touching distance of Arsenal and Manchester United at the top of the Premiership and, while a newly-rich Chelsea offered the promise of increased domestic competition, there was also the lure of more Champions League adventures to look forward to.

Newcastle were moulding a squad of talented British youngsters able to take the club into the upper echelons of the European game and their status as one of English football's major powers looked to be assured for many years to come.

Today that vision is in tatters and, instead of looking to dominate the domestic game, the current Newcastle squad is in grave danger of being riven apart if things do not go according to plan this week.

Their dreams of joining the European elite were dealt a savage blow when August's Champions League qualifier against Partizan Belgrade ended in unexpected defeat and, while United recovered some ground by reaching the last four of the UEFA Cup, it is worth noting that they were comprehensively outclassed by a Marseille side struggling in seventh spot in the French league.

Domestically, things have gone even worse with Newcastle an incredible 31 points behind champions Arsenal having won just two Premiership away games all season.

The free-flowing attacking football that gave so much pleasure last term has been notable only by its absence and, instead of challenging for the title, Newcastle have found themselves embroiled in an unseemly battle for the financial safety net offered by a fourth-place finish.

There have been mitigating factors of course. Injuries to key players have hampered the final months of the campaign and, as Robson is quick to point out, Kieron Dyer, Craig Bellamy and Jonathan Woodgate have only played together five times all season.

But, by their very nature, injury-prone players are prone to getting injured and the sad reality is that there is no guarantee of things being any different next, or any other, season.

Robson can also point to the fact that he was unable to spend any money on purchases last summer - Lee Bowyer was the only addition to the squad and he came on a free transfer - and failure to qualify for the Champions League meant he was similarly constrained when the transfer window opened in January.

But, after being at the club for at least a full season now, this should have been time when some of Robson's previous purchases came into their own.

Instead, Hugo Viana has shown nothing at all to justify his exhorbitant £8.5m price tag, Laurent Robert has combined occasional flashes of brilliance with long periods of Gallic indifference, and Darren Ambrose has struggled to establish himself in a midfield that has looked strangely toothless for large chunks of the season.

Combine this to an attack that lacks a natural partner for Alan Shearer with Bellamy sidelined, and a defence still horrifically error-prone without the stabilising presence of Woodgate, and you have a side struggling to tread water in the Premiership never mind kicking on to new heights.

Some big decision need to be made this summer - and those decisions will largely depend on how things unfold over the next week.

Finish in fourth and money should be available to plug some of the gaps that have become increasingly apparent. Finish in fifth and, while they might struggle to attract the biggest names to take the club forward, Newcastle should at least be able to recover from their current blip.

But finish outside the top five and, without any European football at all, there would almost certainly be major rebuilding work on Tyneside this summer.

Dyer has talked of a possible exodus if United are left high and dry next weekend, while goalkeeper Shay Given is making noises that suggest he would be reconsidering his position at the club if things didn't go according to plan.

That could all become immaterial if Newcastle finish the campaign with three wins, starting with tomorrow's crucial clash with Wolves. But, if they don't, the Newcastle side that kicks off next season could look substantially different to the one that has treaded water for much of this.