EIGHTEEN months ago it seemed certain that the next General Election would be fought on three issues - the economy, health and education.

With the cushion of a substantial majority behind him, Tony Blair must have been looking forward to the election with some confidence.

With sound growth, coupled with inflation and unemployment at historically low levels, the economic agenda would not have troubled him.

And he seemed content to rely on the successive rounds of public sector investment to come on stream, to go to the polls claiming schools and the health service were in better shape.

Events, however, have conspired against him. Such is the level of concern over Iraq, for the first time in most people's memory, the next election may be won and lost on foreign policy issues.

Having looked impregnable on the domestic stage for so long, Mr Blair looks increasingly vulnerable because of the deepening crisis in Iraq.

There is time for Mr Blair to restore his political fortunes. As one of his predecessors said, a week is a long time in politics. Mr Blair has a year, possibly two, before the country goes to the polls.

But the Prime Minister's concern must be that he is no longer in control of his own fortunes.

In Iraq, he is very much tied to the policy adopted by President Bush and the tactics adopted by US troops.

If that policy and those tactics are rejected in November's Presidential election, Mr Blair will be left isolated on the international stage, facing the very real prospect of going into his own election year saddled with an Iraqi policy dictated by a new President, over whom he has no influence.

In those circumstances, the Labour Party's greatest ever electoral asset will turn into a liability.