CONVENTIONAL wisdom dictates the 2,000 Guineas is the best trial for the Derby, which leads me to believe that Salford City (4.20) is the horse most likely enter Epsom's hall of fame just after 4.20pm this afternoon.
Using the form of last month's one-mile colts' Classic at Newmarket as the best available yardstick, Snow Ridge (2nd), and sixth-home Salford City both emerge as leading contenders for today's £1,250,000 mile-and-a-half Vodafone-sponsored showpiece.
In discarding Frankie Dettori's mount, Snow Ridge, punters are taking a big risk.
However, the Derby has traditionally been Frankie's bogey race, while there's also persuasive evidence that Johnny Murtagh's partner didn't really show his full potential in the Guineas.
Salford City is prone to being a slow starter and he really gaffed it up big-time at Newmarket, where the son of Desert Sun literally fell out of the stalls and forfeited many lengths in the process.
Poor Murtagh was thereafter always chasing a lost cause because in having to push David Elsworth's three-year-old so vigorously along in the first half of the race, it meant there was simply nothing left in the locker to launch a final-furlong assault when the other jockeys were getting serious.
In the circumstances the combination did superbly well to finish within four lengths of the principals, which suggests they can turn the tables on Snow Ridge, especially over this much longer distance.
Elsworth took the trouble to give Salford City a spin around Epsom a week last Wednesday, prompting some encouraging feedback.
"He's never been round a bend and it was certainly a good idea to bring him here," he said.
Murtagh was equally enthusiastic.
"He handled the track nicely, has got good balance and a decent temperament," said the Irish ace, who has an outstanding record in the race, having won it twice, plus finished third, all in the space of the last four years.
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