SUNDAY newspaper stories speculate that Peter Mandelson's elevation to Europe wasn't quite the triumph for Tony Blair that it was first suggested to be.

At the back end of last week, it appeared that Mr Blair had made the appointment from a position of power. He had seen off Gordon Brown and Michael Howard, had laid Iraq to rest, had launched a string of five-year plans that show how he intends to go on and on, and had been able to withstand the controversy surrounding Mr Mandelson's appointment.

However, the Sunday speculation suggested that Mr Blair had wanted to bring Mr Mandelson back into the Cabinet but he was shouted down by a combination of John Prescott, Mr Brown, Jack Straw and Charles Clarke. The post of European Commissioner was all he could offer his close friend from Hartlepool.

Whichever way you read this, Mr Blair still heads for his holiday in Sir Cliff Richard's Caribbean home very dominant in British politics and in British polls.

A majority of people may believe he lied over the war, but they still trust him enough with public services not to vote for someone else. A majority do not like the war, but they are not dashing to the Liberal Democrats in overwhelming numbers - even if the LibDems do rightfully feel they are on the verge of becoming the main Opposition. This is because a majority still do not like, nor understand, the Tories. Mr Howard is in a muddle over the war, saying he wouldn't now vote for it even though he thinks it was a good idea, and he is failing to offer any long-term vision for public services.

Say what you like about Mr Blair's five-year plans - and you'd be right to say sceptical things about many of the grand visions - but at least you know roughly in which direction he is hoping to head. Despite the war bruising his reputation, a betting man would have money on Mr Blair winning the General Election. He would also have money on an all-time low turn-out. Mr Mandelson's third stab at a top job will encourage few to vote Labour in particular, or politicians in general.