Economic growth will peak in the final three months of this year before falling to more normal levels next year, research has suggested.

The NTC Leading Indicator, a gauge of recent statistics to provide a longer term forecast on the UK economy, was 99.6 last month, down for the fifth successive month and the lowest level since January 2001.

Research group NTC said the data continued to suggest that the latest upturn in the UK business cycle would peak at some point in the fourth quarter of this year, before turning down towards its long term trend in the first months of next year.

The survey is in line with forecasts from the Bank of England and City analysts, who believe higher interest rates will dampen growth next year after an annual rise of about 3.6 per cent this year.

NTC said the biggest adverse influence on its index last month came from higher interest rates, with the resulting knock to consumer confidence and new car registrations adding to the detrimental impact.

The group said the strength of the downturn should be treated with caution as many of the statistics required for July's result were absent.