WITH less than 48 hours to go before the result of the referendum on a directly-elected assembly for the North-East is declared, the latest figures appeared to indicate that the turnout is likely to approach the 50 per cent mark.

By lunchtime yesterday, turnout in the postal ballot had reached 37.6 per cent - up by 2.5 per cent on the previous day - and appears likely to pass the 41.5 per cent turnout figure achieved in the region for June's European elections.

It is believed that turnout could rise by ten per cent or more in the last days of the campaign, which may make the result a lot closer than initial polls suggested.

Both sides of the debate last night drew comfort from the latest turnout figures. North East Says No which, according to The Northern Echo's exclusive Mori poll last month had a seven per cent lead over Yes 4 The North East, said it remained confident of victory.

Chairman John Elliott said: "Turnout looks like it's going to hit 40 per cent but, with such an important issue, we're hoping that it goes higher. We are confident that it will be a no vote on Thursday night. This is the feedback we are getting on the streets.

"However, we are not complacent and we will be spending the next two days getting our message across."

However, the Yes campaign believes the gap has narrowed dramatically in recent days and privately argues that the higher the turnout, the better its chances of victory.

Significantly, although in percentage terms the turnout has been fairly consistent across the region, when it comes to the actual number of votes cast, two-thirds have come in the Tyne and Wear conurbation and County Durham - the two areas where support for Yes is expected to be strongest.

Yesterday's figures showed a surge in votes in Chester-le-Street, County Durham, where turnout rose by more than five per cent in one day.

Yes 4 The North East campaign director Ross Forbes said: "I think it is still all to play for - as much as ten per cent of votes can come in at the very last minute."

Although Royal Mail's deadline for postal voting has passed, people can vote at the network of assistance and delivery points around the region up to 10pm tomorrow.

Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said he was pleased that turnout has surpassed the 34 per cent that London recorded in its referendum for an assembly in 2000