GROUND-breaking research has offered hope for red squirrels in Kielder Forest surviving a deadly disease.

The squirrel pox virus is harmless to grey squirrels but when passed on to reds proves fatal.

For the past three years, the Forestry Commission, Newcastle University and Queen Mary, University of London, supported by Mammals Trust UK, have co-operated on a pioneering project in Kielder Forest - home to approximately 70pc of the species - as part of a wider initiative to conserve the species in northern England.

Using computer modelling tools, researchers looked at the likely impact of the disease when greys arrive in significant numbers at the edges of the forest within the next five to ten years.

They estimate that infectious grey squirrels are likely to cause localised extinction of reds, but that this will not irrevocably affect the core population and numbers should recover.

The main reason for this is that red squirrels succumb to the pox virus rapidly and any squirrels that become infected at the edge of Kielder are unlikely to transmit the disease to the core population. In effect, the disease burns out.

The models show that Kielder's size works in the reds' favour. Vast areas of conifer present an unappealing habitat for greys, making it less likely that they will penetrate too deeply.

The forest is also fragmented by clear fell areas further apart than a squirrel's home range of between 300-800m. This will provide some kind of barrier to the transmission of squirrel pox between infected reds.