I think it would have been a pretty poor indictment of the rest of the Government if Tony Blair had felt it necessary to return from holiday early as a result of the tsunami disaster.

Other than provide the press with a photo-opportunity, I cannot see what he could achieve here that couldn't be achieved by him over a phone. After all, modern communications allowed George Bush to run the United States from an aeroplane during the dark hours of September 11.

The Prime Minister has had an extremely arduous year and he and his family deserve a break. Delegation is an important part of leadership and whether it's government or the corner shop, staff have to be trusted to get on with things without the boss constantly looking over their shoulders.

I suspect Mr Blair will start the new year with a distinct feeling there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The Iraqi war does not seem to have lost him the support many felt it would, Blunkett has gone and issues like foxhunting come well down the list of most people's priorities.

All eyes now will be on the General Election and Mr Blair can begin campaigning in earnest for what - if Labour wins - will probably be his final stint as Prime Minister.

For much of his time in charge the major opposition appears to have been the media - though with Michael Howard at the helm, the Conservatives finally seem to be getting their act together.

In his memoirs, the journalist John Simpson recalls how the then Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, punched him in the stomach for having the impertinence to throw a question at him as he walked down a station platform.

The entire press corps, including TV, witnessed the assault but no-one reported the matter. That's the way it was in 1970.

You can't imagine Tony Blair losing his cool in such a way. Instead, he will bite his lip, smile and simply move on to the next question. One lesson you do learn when in the media spotlight is that questions are often phrased, not to elicit facts, but for a facial expression for the cameras. A flash of anger makes good TV.

The most stressful moment many such columnists face in their entire lives is probably equal to the pressure the Prime Minister faces most days.

But the 24-hour news world we live in means a constant demand for stories so anything the Prime Minister is involved in will be examined in the most minute of detail.

Last year was dominated by foreign matters but I suspect the next few months will see home policies very much to the fore.

If Labour does win the election the question will turn to who will succeed Mr Blair. Many seem to feel the crown will be handed to Gordon Brown, but I am not convinced. By 2009 he may be considered past his sell-by date. Labour could well want a break from the Blair-Brown years in favour of a new formula to woo the voters.

I have a feeling another North-East MP will succeed the Prime Minister - namely David Miliband.

He is bright, articulate, a good communicator and in touch with the modern world and people's aspirations. Just as importantly, he doesn't carry the baggage of the past and therefore have the enemies within, which could scupper many of the old guard's chances.

Published: 07/01/05