A NEW prediction that we have seen the worst of mad-cow disease in humans has been challenged by the mother of a North-East victim.

Yesterday, scientists from Imperial College, in London, predicted that only about 70 more people will die from the human form of the disease.

So far, 146 British people have died from new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) since the condition appeared in 1995.

But Frances Hall, from Chester-le-Street, who lost a son, Peter, to variant CJD in 1996, cast doubt on the claims.

"There aren't really any experts in this field. We still don't know enough about vCJD. Basically, it is still guesswork and number crunching," said Mrs Hall, who is secretary of the Human BSE Association.

"Of course, I hope to God that they are right. As far as our own family is concerned, it is hard to rest easy. How long do you wait before you know it won't happen again," she said.

Researchers used a computer model to predict the progress of the variant CJD epidemic in Britain based on the level of infection and the number of recorded cases.

The scientists decided an explosion of deaths from mad-cow disease was unlikely, even though thousands of people may be infected with the disease.

This is because the scientists believe that 40 per cent of the population have the particular genetic make-up which seems to make people vulnerable to vCJD.

However, they believe that thousands of individuals could unsuspectingly harbour the defective prion proteins thought to be responsible for the disease, yet never develop the life-threatening illness.

The research takes no account of secondary infection through blood donations or surgery with contaminated instruments.

The analysis led by Dr Azra Ghani is partly based on findings from a survey of tonsil and appendix samples by doctors at Derriford Hospital, Plymouth.

In May last year, it was reported that three positive results had been found among 12,764 samples from anonymous donors.

"I am afraid it is still a case of just watching and waiting at the moment," said Mrs Hall.

"What we really need is a test which can pick up vCJD in blood," she said.

Four people in the North-East have died from vCJD, including judo champion Mandi Minto, from Sunderland, who died in 1997.