£10,000 a minute - that is the staggering level of profit that Shell is due to announce on Thursday. The high oil price throughout last year will mean Shell reporting record full-year results. Earnings per share are likely to have jumped from 30.4p to 37p, and the ongoing strength of crude means there will probably be a further advance this year.

The profit figure should not disguise the amount of tax paid by the company. As well as paying billions in corporation tax on profits, sales taxes, excise duties and similar levies rake in even more to the Government coffers. The results for 2003 saw Shell pay taxes of more than £76bn. As most people know, the price of petrol at the pump is mostly tax, and if people kept a record of their annual petrol consumption, they would be alarmed at how much tax they were paying to stay on the road.

Clamours from some quarters for a windfall tax on the oil companies need to be put in perspective. BP, as the UK's largest company, pays even more tax than Shell.

The subject of tax was brought into sharp focus last week as the authoritative Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) cast doubt on the Chancellor's revenue forecasts and calculated he was likely to fall £6.5bn short of meeting his golden rule of only borrowing to invest over an economic cycle.

The IFS stated that taxes would need to rise by £11bn a year to plug a further revenue shortfall beyond 2005/06 if current expenditure was maintained. The two main political parties are making much of the issue of tax in the run-up to the next General Election. The worst-kept secret in Westminster is that the election will be called for Thursday, May 5, or 05/05/05. At least one of the political parties will be hoping that all the fives are lucky for them.

The Chinese have eight as their lucky number. The Beijing Olympics will start on August 8, 2008, at 8 pm. A telephone number 8888-8888 recently sold for $300,000 to a business hoping more customers would call. The Government, in going for all the fives, may be hoping for more voters to vote.

Last Thursday, the Nationwide house price report stated that UK house prices rose by 0.4 per cent this month, reversing a modest fall last month. A better survey for our region is the Halifax house price report, as it includes a greater proportion of northern homes. This is due out shortly, and should show a similar result. Those hoping for a cut in interest rates on falling house prices will be disappointed.

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) meets on February 9, with a decision on rates due out the next day. The minutes of this month's meeting show no inclination to move interest rates in either direction. With little in the way of economic developments in the next week, expect no change again. Indeed, with inflation moving towards the MPC's target, it is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged for the first half of the year. Ironically, looking at the Bank of England's diary, an interest rate decision is due to be made on May 5. That is a banker for a unanimous no change decision.

* For investment advice contact Anthony Platts on 01642 608855.

Published: 01/02/2005