MATHEMATICALLY speaking The Last Cast (2.55) has so much in hand on his rivals at Carlisle that only a serious jumping error can prevent him from winning the top prize on the card, the £15,000 Weatherbys Bank Novices Chase.

The official BHB ratings put Hughie Morrison's Lambourn-based southern raider more than 14lb clear of his nearest rival, Stormy Lord, who apart from the 16 fences appears to be the only serious threat to The Last Cast's superiority.

Sadly from a betting perspective Morrison's certain red-hot favourite won't make his backers a fortune, therefore in search of better value a win-only investment on Midlem Melody (4.05) might be the sensible alternative option.

In terms of handicapping, Midlem Melody is paying the price for winning four times last season.

Although the extra weight the nine-year-old has had to carry of late has undoubtedly kept her out of the number one spot, this afternoon's Resdev Handicap Chase does offer up a marvellous opportunity with which to find her way back into the winners' enclosure.

The Attwood Memorial Trophy at Ludlow brings together some quite useful two-and-a-half-mile chasers, including The Villager, Idealko, and the horse which lifted the silverware 12 months ago, Dealer's Choice (3.15).

The Villager would probably prefer a softer surface, while Idealko has become something of a professional loser.

Dealer's Choice has also been called a name or two in the past, however he does love Ludlow, which combined with the fact that last year's victorious rider, Timmy Murphy, has been booked to ride, makes him a must for the short-list.

In the negative column, slaves of the form book will point to the selection's sluggish showing at Newbury last time out, but it's easy to forgive that shabby effort since he was taking on a better class of opponent over a trip that more-then-likely stretched his stamina to the limit.

Betting on horses that were pulled up on their latest outing could be considered as one of the quickest routes to the poorhouse, although this may not be the case for Lilac (3.50), worth an each-way punt at big odds in the Henley Hall Gold Cup Mares Only Handicap Hurdle.

The Richard Price-trained six-year-old was simply overwhelmed by the bottomless quagmire she faced at Chepstow in January, and is far better judged on her fast ground success at Uttoxeter in June 2004.

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