PATIENT Andy Welsh has a rare chance to shine in a Sunderland shirt this afternoon and manager Mick McCarthy has told the young winger to avoid becoming downhearted on Wearside.

Since making the £15,000 move from League One strugglers Stockport at the back end of last year, Welsh has made just one start for his new club.

He has found himself in the unfortunate position of having to dislodge fans' favourite Julio Arca from the left wing role - a near impossible task for any footballer outside the Premiership.

Arca is loved at the Stadium of Light and McCarthy jokingly conceded that Welsh would have to revert to extreme measures if the Argentinean was going to lose his place on a regular basis.

The 21-year-old Englishman will be handed his first league start for Sunderland against Cardiff today in the absence of the injured Arca, who has failed to recover from a hip injury sustained against Rotherham in midweek.

And McCarthy admitted: "Andy must think Julio is going to have to have five bad games before eyebrows are raised. Julio's probably going to have to nick Welsh's car and crash it before anyone thinks ill of him. But that's how it's been.

"But who's to say George McCartney won't get suspended. Then Julio gets to play left-back and Andy gets a chance to play on the wing again.

"Andy knows he will have to wait but he is in a far better position here, where he has a chance of being in the Premiership, than not playing regularly at Stockport. That's for sure.

"Andy is a left winger and is a different style to Julio.

"Andy is prepared to run at players where Julio has more of an ability to come inside and manipulate the ball.

"Welsh was terrific against Crystal Palace when we won in the FA Cup and his free-kicks really caused them problems, with him even scoring one."

Sunderland know victory over Cardiff this afternoon could push them into the top two again, with just three points separating them from Wigan and Ipswich.

Ipswich are at home to QPR and have an identical goal difference to Sunderland so it could be all change by 4.45 this evening.

The Black Cats, also without Sean Thornton and Stephen Wright through suspension, have only lost twice on home soil in the league this season.

But McCarthy is taking nothing for granted in his bid to guide Sunderland into the automatic promotion places. "Who knows what's going to happen," said McCarthy.

"It might be suspensions and injuries that play their part between now and the end of the season. There will be a lot of mitigating factors about who goes up.

"We have 12 games left and the two above us have three points more. We have all proven we are the best three sides in the league but it might come down to other factors."

Cardiff visit the North-East only six points above a relegation place and have only won once away from home since September.

Full-back Darren Williams, who swapped Sunderland for Ninian Park earlier in the season, has been out of favour in recent weeks as the Bluebirds have gone in search of an improvement in results.

And McCarthy, whose side have lost just one in seven matches, knows what to expect. "Up until losing to Millwall on Tuesday they had some great results so it will be difficult," he said.

"It's a surprise where they are but Lennie Lawrence has turned things around apart from that one blip. Cardiff will try to play football which Lennie has always encouraged. I don't know what approach they will have."

* Wigan are back on top of the Championship thanks to Nathan Ellington's wonder goal - but try telling boss Paul Jewell that his team are bound for the Barclays Premiership.

While ''pleased'' to climb above Ipswich on goal difference this week, Jewell stressed that ''it's being top in May that counts and not in February''.

Nonetheless, Wigan have emerged from a mid-season slump to rise to the top of the pack.

Wednesday's win at Coventry, secured by a magnificent Ellington volley, was their third on the bounce, a timely run given Ipswich's stutter.

Today sees Jewell's men in action at Gillingham, where the Latics will face a home side for whom survival is the incentive.

Talk of the top-flight is off the agenda at Wigan.

''We will just focus on the game at Gillingham on Saturday and not worry about anything other than the things that we can directly influence,'' Jewell said.

Read more about Sunderland here.