Who will take the papal prize?

AFTER three years, the citizens of Viterbo had had enough. The 18 cardinals staying in the city had been unable to agree on a new pope, so they were at first reduced to bread and water, and then the roof of their palace was torn off, exposing them to the elements. It didn't take long after that for Pope Gregory X to emerge.

It's unlikely that such measures will be needed to elect the successor to John Paul II. If anything, the cardinals have had their lives made a little more comfortable by the construction of the £10m House of Saint Martha, which they will call home until the new pope is chosen. Private rooms, air conditioning; it's a long way from the monastic cells of previous conclaves.

But the task facing the 115 cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church, who on Monday begin their conclave - from the Latin for "with key" to symbolise being locked together until a decision is made - is as daunting as any in the church's 2,000-year history. Before them is the responsibility for choosing the man to follow one of the most remarkable of popes.

John Paul II travelled the equivalent of 31 times around the world, on 104 journeys, becoming an instantly recognisable figure across the globe. He created more saints than all his predecessors combined, reigned longer than all but two, and two million people came to Rome for his funeral. It is hard to see anyone stepping into his shoes without almost overwhelming foreboding.

But a successor is what must emerge from the conclave, after what has been likened to a power struggle for the future direction of the church and the world's 1.1 billion Catholics, masked behind elaborate ritual and ceremony.

Conventional wisdom has it that since all but a handful of voting cardinals - those under 80, although two who are eligible are ill and unable to attend - were chosen by the late pope, his successor is guaranteed to carry on his hard-line teaching on personal morality. But John Paul II was more tolerant than this, and the conclave represents a range of opinion within the church.

The accepted view is that the conclave will go for an older candidate this time. John Paul II was 57 when he became Pope, and those unwilling to countenance such a similarly long reign may opt for a transitional pontiff, although an ageing pope will find it difficult to energise his worldwide flock. One option is to choose a younger candidate who would serve a fixed term, although once installed, a pope cannot be made to retire.

Gregory X, who became pope in 1271, introduced reforms to shorten the conclave, although they have lasted more than a month on 29 subsequent occasions. No conclave since 1831 has lasted more than four days, and when John Paul II was elected it was all over within 24 hours.

The cardinals take a vow of silence before they move into conclave, but that has not stopped factions emerging, dividing roughly along geographical lines.

With 58 cardinals, the Europeans are the largest single block, with the 20 Italians the largest single nationality, although no longer enough to ensure the papacy is kept in Italian hands, as had happened for the four and a half centuries before the Polish Karol Wojtyla was chosen in 1978. But while the Catholic church is flourishing in Latin America and Africa, in Europe it is waning, and even in Italy regular church-goers are now in a minority, and some may see it as a backward step to choose someone who has presided over decline.

Certainly there is a feeling among Latin Americans that they have a claim on the papacy. Home to just over half of the world's Catholics, Central and South America have a number of candidates. The downside is that the theology common in Latin America, its opposition to big business and acceptance of contraception, may be too radical for some.

The 14 cardinals from North America may exercise considerable influence in the election, representing the congregations which provide the Vatican with financial stability, although they are considered unlikely to produce a pope themselves, a superpower pope generally seen as unacceptable.

St Gelasius I (492-496) was the last African-born pope, but there is widespread belief that a continent where the church is growing rapidly and is doctrinally orthodox could produce another. John Paul II increased the African representation in the College of Cardinals from just one in 1978 to 11, but there are question marks over whether any of the African cardinals are strong enough contenders.

However the new pope emerges, whether from geographical force of numbers or a compromise from stalemate, there is no clear candidate. Whoever is chosen will have a formidable struggle to balance the competing wings of the church, both in doctrine and in geography. And with the uncertainties of the looming power struggle in mind, it is worth remembering an old Vatican motto: "He who goes into the conclave a pope, comes out a cardinal".

The men who could be pope

PREDICTING the identity of the next pope is certain to end in failure, but a number of candidates have emerged as "papabili", or potential pope.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger has been the Pope's right hand man, although at 77 he may be too old. Another outsider is Cardinal Carlo Martini. Once seen as a favourite, at 78 his time is thought to have past.

African hopes rest with Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, 72. He is being touted as a clear favourite, not always a promising position.

Among the leading Latin American candidates are Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, 62, archbishop of Tegucicalpa in Honduras, and Cardinal Claudio Hummes, 69, archbishop of Sao Paolo in Brazil. Also seen as papabili are Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera, 63, archbishop of Mexico City, and Cardinal Jorge Begoglio, 68, archbishop of Buenos Aires.

Cardinal Ivan Dias of Bombay is one of 11 Asian cardinals eligible to vote, and would also be a strong candidate.

Italy's best chance of regaining the papacy lies with Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, 71, archbishop of Milan. But Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 71, who was close to John Paul II, could yet leapfrog his fellow countryman.

Among other Europeans, Cardinal Christoph Schonborn, 60, archbishop of Vienna, is a highly-regarded intellectual, Cardinal Godfreed Danneels of Belgium, may appeal as a compromise, and Cardinal Jose da Cruz Policarpo, 69, patriarch of Portugal, is a dark horse candidate.

How the winner is chosen

All male Catholics are eligible to become pope, although the last non-cardinal chosen was Urban VI in 1378.

The cardinals are shut away in the Vatican until they reach a decision, and are forbidden from communicating with the outside world.

Voting takes place in the Sistine Chapel. A single ballot can be held on the afternoon of the first day, after they have taken an oath of secrecy; from the second day two ballots are held in the morning, two in the afternoon.

Voting takes place on rectangular ballot papers, printed with the words Eligio in Summum Pontificem (I elect as Supreme Pontiff) above a space for the name of the person. Cardinals write their choice, and fold the paper twice.

Each cardinal carries their ballot, in order of precedence, to the altar, where it is placed in a chalice. After all the votes have been cast, the papers are mixed, counted and opened. A scrutineer calls out the names of those cardinals who have received votes as the papers are counted.

After the papers have been counted, they are burned. If a decision has been made, chemicals are added to produce white smoke, otherwise th e smoke is black. Following confusion over grey smoke in 1978, the Vatican bells will also be rung to signal a new pope.

A winning candidate must receive two thirds of the votes plus one. If there is no clear winner after several days, the cardinals can allow a candidate to be elected by more than half the votes. After three days, the cardinals can pause for no more than a day, for prayer.

Once a pope is chosen, he is asked if he accepts and by what name he wants to be called. He is then fitted into white papal robes, and an announcement is made from the balcony of St Peter's Basilica: "Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum - habemus papami" (I announce to you a great joy - we have a pope).