'Africa's fate is in its own hands'

IF there's one thing about Robert Guest, a veteran Africa correspondent who, until recently, was the country's editor for The Economist, it's that he doesn't shrink from controversy. In fact, his book, The Shackled Continent, whose paperback release coincides with the G8 summit, seems to actively embrace it.

A chapter on the scourge of Aids is typically near the knuckle. After describing being harassed by prostitutes in the squalor of African cities, he relates the story of a frank and fearless trucker. He writes: "'I f*ck thirty bitches a month,' boasted John Masara, a 29-year-old trucker. He slammed his fist into the palm of his left hand to emphasise the point. F****** was the only entertainment in Beitbridge, he explained. Most truckers shunned hotels, however. It was cheaper to sleep where they parked, or to pay a prostitute for a share of her mattress.

"Did Mr Masara know about Aids? Sure, he said, a colleague had died of it two days before. He knew how to protect himself too, but did he use condoms? 'Sometimes,' he said. His friends laughed: 'When you're not drunk.'"

This sort of blatant disregard for safety, maintains Guest, is what is killing millions of Africans, along with governments' reluctance to take action. Yet while the picture he paints is bleak, he does offer grounds for hope, citing, for example, Uganda's startling success in tackling the disease.

'The climate of free debate has led young Ugandans to delay losing their virginity, to have fewer partners, and to use more condoms. Between 1992 and 2002, HIV prevalence among women attending urban antenatal clinics fell from almost 30 per cent to about five per cent," he writes.

Uganda's method was simple and, crucially, inexpensive - a charity called the Straight Talk Foundation merely spread the message of safe sex. But while this clearly worked, other African countries where prudery holds sway continue to let their people die. "Without frank discussion of what exactly people are doing in bed and behind bushes, it will be impossible to curb the epidemic," Guest writes.

He sees the single biggest problem facing Africa as its inept government. In a story he describes as central to the book, he recounts his experience riding on a beer truck 500 kilometres across Cameroon. Shoddy roads and corrupt police meant that a journey that should have taken 18 hours took four days - and involved 47 stops at roadblocks. Guest sees no inherent reason why this should have been so. "It's not necessarily a cultural thing. The reason that policemen in Cameroon rob you is because they can. The government fundamentally doesn't care whether the country gets richer as long as the top 20 or so families stay very wealthy," he says.

According to Guest, this bald self-interest is true of many African leaders - not least Robert Mugabe, whose brutal resettlement policy has plunged Zimbabwe into crisis. Yet while he believes there's moral justification for Britain to intervene, he's realistic enough to see this as unlikely.

"We would need the co-operation of South Africa and I don't think South Africa is going to give that and we would need the support of Western countries and I don't think any Western country is going to give that," he says.

"If the South African government turned their (Zimbabwe's) electricity off, that would be a wonderful thing, but they're not going to do that. Given how stretched America is in Iraq, I just don't see them getting involved."

While cynics might say that this lack of Western will smacks of self-interest - without the lure of oil, why take on Zimbabwe's problems? - Guest says that intervention isn't just about morality. "It has to be practical. It helps if the country isn't landlocked - somewhere like Darfur is fantastically hard to get to because it's in the middle of nowhere. Also, it has a functional government - it's not just a bunch of coked-up teenagers who want to kill everyone," he says.

Yet there have been times when direct action has proved successful. Guest cites the example of Sierra Leone, whose bloody civil war was quelled by British marines, and which is now largely peaceful.

Part of the problem for rich countries is the deep suspicion and resentment with which much of Africa regards them. According to Guest, this may help explain South Africa's reluctance to break ranks with Zimbabwe - it would rather support Mugabe than side with the likes of its former colonisers. Yet while conceding that tribalism is inherent within African culture, Guest claims it's exploited for political ends - which does few people any good.

He says that this is clearly shown by South Africa, where the post-apartheid government has introduced laws favouring blacks. A minority of the educated middle-class has prospered, while unsound economics have left the majority worse off.

"The only sensible solution is a separation of tribe and state. Governments should not discriminate on grounds of ethnicity, period. This may seem hopelessly idealistic. Many of the world's most powerful interest groups passionately oppose the idea of equality before the law. But all the alternatives are worse," says Guest.

South Africa's leading presence makes its fortunes crucial to the continent, casting it as the likely driver of any resurgence. Guest believes that while there are problems, there are also signs of hope. "I think it's very significant that the deputy president of South Africa has been sacked for alleged corruption. It's incredibly rare for that to happen in any African country. I think they do realise in South Africa that the fundamental problem there is that the economy isn't growing fast enough," he says.

In the meantime, significant progress is being made. Throughout Africa, organisations like the World Bank and the United Nations are providing help and expertise, while multinationals like Vodafone bring vital technology. Guest believes next week's G8 summit can only add to the positive work.

"Obviously, something is going to come out of it. There's been a pretty big agreement on debt relief, which I think is a good thing because most of the people who wasted the money were dictators and it's not really the fault of the people living in these countries, so they should be given another chance," he says.

"The amount of aid that the world gives to Africa will also be increased and I think that's a good thing, as long as the aid is distributed more sensibly than it has been in the past. If the aid is intelligently applied then it could make a difference but - and this is where I'm inclined to part company with Tony Blair, who seems to think that a big global summit is absolutely decisive as to whether Africa survives or not - I think Western aid will be quite marginal in determining Africa's future.

"I think the only people who can turn each individual African country into a modern, functioning society are Africans themselves."

* The Shackled Continent: Africa's Past, Present and Future by Robert Guest (Macmillan, £7.99).