A new poll shows what could happen in the North East if a General Election was held today - and it makes grim reading for the Conservatives. 

The latest modelling from Electoral Calculus predicts a huge Labour landslide in the next General Election based on current opinion polling - far greater than even the majorities achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001.

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On their most likely scenario, the model predicts Labour would win 507 seats, 303 more than they achieved in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Tories would be incredibly on just 48 seats, 307 down from their 2019 total of 365.

This would also leave the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the official opposition with 52 seats, giving Labour an overall majority of 364.

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Elsewhere, the Lib Dems would be on 19 seats, the Greens one, and none for the Reform party.

Within the margin of error of the modelling, the best case scenario for the Tories puts them on 192 seats, whilst the worst put them on just 18.

For Labour, the best case scenario is 557 seats and the worst is 369.

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If the model turns out to be a true reflection of the General Election result, it would result in a complete Conservative wipe out in the North East.

The Tories would lose their 11 seats in the region, resulting in Labour gains in Blyth Valley, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Durham North West, Darlington, Redcar, Sedgefield, Stockton South, Bishop Auckland, Hexham, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.

This would see Ian Levy, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Richard Holden, Peter Gibson, Jacob Young, Paul Howell, Matt Vickers, Dehenna Davison, Guy Opperman, Jill Mortimer and Simon Clarke  

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It would also mean Labour would be in control of all 29 North East seats, including 18 holds in Newcastle upon Tyne East, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, South Shields, Middlesbrough, Gateshead, Easington, Tyneside North, Jarrow, Washington and Sunderland West, Durham North, Blaydon,Houghton and Sunderland South, City of Durham, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Sunderland Central, Tynemouth, Wansbeck and Stockton North.

A spokesperson for Electoral Calculus said: "Since the government's mini-budget on 23 September, support for the Conservative party has fallen far and fast. As at 17 October, the Labour lead over the Conservatives now stands at 26pc.

"Since Labour need a lead of about 10pc for a majority, the current extraordinary lead implies a correspondingly extraordinary parliamentary majority of 364 seats.

"The Conservatives now have less than half the length of parliament to turn the polls around. But they also face economic headwinds in the short term as both family budgets and government spending are squeezed by inflation and higher interest rates.

"Debt deleveraging and higher rates may be good for the economy in the longer term, but the next election will happen before then."

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Earlier today, Liz Truss survived a meeting of the Cabinet without any ministers calling for her to quit, but Tory members and voters appear to be turning on her.

A snap poll of party members released on Tuesday saw more than half respond that she should resign and 83% say she was doing a bad job.

The challenge facing the Prime Minister was underlined by a YouGov survey of 530 Conservative Party members on Monday and Tuesday which saw 55% say she should resign, and only 38% back her staying on.

About 39% of those who voted for Ms Truss in the Tory leadership race said she should quit, compared with 57% who said she should not.

Some 83% said she was doing badly as Conservative leader, compared with 15% who said she was doing well and 2% being unsure.

Boris Johnson, three months after he was forced to resign following a series of scandals, was favourite to succeed her on 32%, followed by former chancellor Rishi Sunak on 23% and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace on 10%.

Some 60% said they would back a proposal of a unity candidate to succeed Ms Truss being chosen without members having a say.

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The poll is not large enough to be considered representative of the wider membership, but YouGov’s research has frequently given a good indication of the party’s mood in the past.

A separate YouGov study of 1,724 British adults between October 14 and 16 – before Monday’s mini-budget U-turns – saw Ms Truss’s net favourability plummet to minus 70.

Just 10% of Britons had a favourable opinion of the Prime Minister, with 80% viewing her unfavourably, the survey suggested.

Among Tory voters her support continues to drop: 20% had a favourable view, with 71% being unfavourable.

The Prime Minister’s current net favourability score of minus 51 among Tory voters is down 26 points since last week.

A Savanta ComRes poll of 1,126 British adults on Monday found that 67% thought Tory MPs should replace Ms Truss, with just 21% saying she should stay.

Among Tory voters 62% thought Conservative MPs should work to remove Ms Truss.

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