Will the UK have a white Christmas 2021?

Earlier this month the region was battered by Storm Arwen and Storm Barra which left more than 1,000 homes without power and caused major disruption.

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But in recent days the weather has calmed down, with the North-East and North Yorkshire experiencing relatively mild temperatures for December.

So it perhaps unsurprising that the Met Office’s long forecast covering the Christmas period from December 19 through to December 28 makes no mention of snow.

A snowy County Durham landscape in February this year Picture: SARAH CALDECOTT

The forecasters say: “At the start of this period it will be settled and predominantly dry with large amounts of cloud, though cloud may well be thick enough for the odd spot of drizzle at times.

“In general, cloud amounts will tend to reduce with time, with a corresponding increase in the risk of overnight fog and frost, which may be slow to clear by day in some areas.

“There will be a slight chance of rain at times in the far north and northwest, with some stronger winds here.

“Temperatures will generally be near average, and locally mild in the north, but perhaps rather cold at times in the south and feeling chilly where any fog persists.”

And although a white Christmas has become culturally synonymous with the festive period, The Met Office says that most of the UK is more likely to see snow between January and March than in December.

Snow or sleet falls an average 3.9 days in December, compared to 5.3 days in January, 5.6 days in February and 4.2 days in March.

White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively brought Christmas Day back by 12 days.

Eve and Noah enjoying the snow in Gainford in February this year Picture: SARAH CALDECOTT

Climate change has also brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas.

Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least five per cent of the UK's weather station network record snow falling on Christmas Day.

This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.

However, the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer.

There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40 per cent of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am on Christmas Day) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

The Met Office says the last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010.

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It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83 per cent of weather stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19 per cent of stations.

We also had a white Christmas in 2009, when 13 per cent of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57 per cent reported snow lying on the ground.

Technically, 2020 was the last white Christmas for some areas of the UK, with six per cent of weather stations recording snow falling.

However, only four per cent of stations reported any snow lying on the ground.

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