SINCE its creation in 1974, the safe Labour seat of Hartlepool has shown little signs of changing colour, whether it be held by Edward Leadbitter in the 1970s and 1980s, Peter Mandelson, the architect of New Labour, in the 1990s, or most recently, the chair of the Business, Innovation and Skills Select Committee Iain Wright.
But the outcome in 2017 is much harder to predict, with three parties relatively bullish about their chances of victory.
And all three have well-rehearsed messages about how the choice of voters will influence the final result.
CANDIDATE: Phillip Broughton, UKIP
“A Conservative vote is a wasted vote – a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for a Labour MP,” claims Phillip Broughton – Ukip candidate and a self-proclaimed fan of tennis legend Roger Federer.
He knows what knows about the challenge in Hartlepool. He stood in 2015 and came closer than anyone in the last four decades of dislodging Labour – reducing the majority to just over 3,000.
“We only need a four per cent swing,” says Mr Broughton. “We are fighting to bring back hospital services to Hartlepool, as we think regionalising services is wrong. We also want to see more police officers on the street to get the levels of crime down in Hartlepool.”
CANDIDATE: Mike Hill, Labour Party
After Mr Wright’s decision not to stand for re-election because he wanted to “do other things in his life”, it is down to Mike Hill to continue Labour’s dominance in Hartlepool.
“I am from Hartlepool and have lived here for more than 18 years,” he says. “For me, it is all about celebrating the wonderful people of Hartlepool and raising the profile of the town – it is an amazing place. We need to bring in better business infrastructure, and there is a high rate of youth unemployment – I want to work with the college and get the skills built up.”
Despite Ukip pushing Labour close two years ago, Mr Hill suggests the threat will come from elsewhere this time around.
“For Ukip the agenda was Brexit. Since the triggering of Article 50, it is job done.
“Hartlepool is under threat – the Conservatives feel like they are going to get a grip on the North. In reality, we are going to fight them tooth and nail to stop that happening.”
CANDIDATE: Carl Jackson, Conservative Party
While Mr Hill stresses the importance of electing a local candidate, Carl Jackson, Conservative candidate, admits he is not “going to pretend” he is from the town, as he currently lives and is a councillor on Chiltern District Council in Buckinghamshire.
However, his message to voters is clear – having a Hartlepool MP on the government benches will be the best way to get a good deal for the town.
“Hartlepool voted almost 70 per cent to leave and I am the only one who represents a party which can deliver on Brexit," he says. “There is a good chance Theresa May will be the Prime Minister after this election. If the voters of Hartlepool vote Ukip, they have no line to her.
“There has been a steady trickle of hospital services to regional hubs in the last 15 years – I am pledging to fight any further services being sent out.”
CANDIDATE: Andy Hagon, Liberal Democrats
One candidate that can play the local card is Liberal Democrat Andy Hagon, and he believes Hartlepool is ready to turn its back on the two main parties all together.
“Hartlepool needs to get a fairer slice – Conservatives are not bothered and Labour are taking the town for granted – it is time for a complete change," he says. "Hartlepool became disillusioned with Labour when they were in government, people are tired of the wastefulness.
“I will be the loudest advertising board for Hartlepool – there is so much untapped potential.”
Like other candidates, he is also putting hospital services at the heart of his campaign.
“People are really worried in Hartlepool about not having an A&E – those living in a place the size of Hartlepool are having to travel an hour and a half on a bus to get to hospital."
Northern Echo political commentator Chris Lloyd says...
The people of Hartlepool are used to sticking two fingers up at the Labour establishment – in 2002, of course, they elected a monkey as mayor; in 2015, they gave Ukip the largest vote in the North-East and in 2016 this coastal community followed it through by recording one of the country's highest Brexit results.
So Brexity was the place that Ukip leader Paul Nuttall was rumoured to be standing here, and the sitting Labour MP Iain Wright, a remainer with a national reputation, has stood down.
But with Brexit secured, the Ukip vote now appears to be collapsing and this seat seems to defy all political theories.
Labour will gain confidence from the recent by-election on the Headland, a Ukip ward, which it won by 23 votes, but it is so hard to call that BBC2's Newsnight was poring over it during the week without daring to draw a conclusion.
The bookmakers indicate that it is a tight, two horse race with the Tories at 1/2 favourites ahead of fancied Labour at 2/1 with Ukip the 10/1 outsiders.
Are bookies the most reliable political pundits?
In 2015...
Electorate: 69,516
Turnout: 56.81
Iain Wright (Lab) 14,076
Phillip Broughton (UKIP) 11,052
Richard Royal (Con) 8,256
Stephen Picton (Ind) 2,954
Michael Holt (Green) 1,341
Sandra Allison (Hospital) 849
Hilary Allen (Lib Dem) 761
John Hobbs (Ind) 201
Labour majority: 3,024
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