Georgian born Katie Melua famously sang "There are 9 million bicycles in Bejing, that's a fact". Well, here are some other Chinese facts for you.
In 2006, China overtook the UK to become the fourth largest world economy. This year, it could overtake Germany, the third largest economic super power, and it is only a matter of time before the country's 1.3 billion inhabitants deliver enough economic output to overtake Japan and finally the US.
The Chinese Stock Market has risen a staggering 300 per cent in the past 18 months, and is up almost 90 per cent in the past six months. A graphical illustration of this astonishing performance bears more than a passing resemblance to the side of Mount Everest. A similar chart illustrating the much-heralded surge in UK house prices looks like a small mole hill in comparison. It is no wonder that the Chinese authorities and some of the world's most respected financial gurus are starting to air their concerns.
The booming Chinese Stock Market has been driven by many factors, reflecting an unprecedented industrial revolution. Overseas companies have flooded into China in search of cheap labour and access to hundreds of millions of new customers. The encroachment of Westernised businesses into this communist country has also brought with it opportunity and wealth. Chinese citizens are opening hundreds of thousands of share accounts every day, in some cases re-mortgaging the few assets they have managed to accumulate, to participate in the great Stock Market rally. Given this crazy behaviour, no wonder people are worried.
Only a fortnight ago, former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned of an impending Chinese crash, claiming the rapid growth was "clearly unsustainable". Mr Greenspan is not alone in his views that there could be trouble ahead. Asia's richest man, Chinese entrepreneur Li Ka-Shing, also believes that China's Stock Market has turned into a "bubble".
As well as the potential for high rewards, high risk and volatility, are also features of high growth markets. Indeed, as I write this article, news is emerging that the Chinese Stock Market has fallen almost seven per cent after the Chinese Government said it would triple the tax on share transactions, to discourage the behaviour of some citizens. Of course, it is impossible to tell whether this sharp fall is temporary or the beginning of something more sinister. However, history demonstrates that when things do go pop, they do so quickly. In February, we saw a similar sell-off. Coined the Shanghai sneeze, the market fell almost ten per cent in a single session, unsettling Stock Markets across the globe. If, or should I say when, Shanghai sneezes again, the other major stock markets around the world will almost certainly catch a cold. It is this knock-on effect which is the worry.
China will undoubtedly become the world's economic superpower one day, and the latest sell-off may prove to be an excellent entry point which longer term investors can capitalise on. However, given the valuation and bubble-like characteristics of the Chinese market, and the irrational behaviour of many market participants, I believe it would be more prudent to sit on the sidelines for the time being. If the Chinese market does indeed go pop, it could leave all investors, and not just those with a direct exposure to China, with more than a little chop suey on their faces.
*Mark McMullen is an investment manager in the Teesside office of Wise Speke, and can be contacted on 01642-608855. Views expressed are the author's own and are not necessarily held throughout the Brewin Dolphin Group. Wise Speke is a division of Brewin Dolphin Securities Ltd, a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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