WHO is going to win the Ryder Cup? It’s an obvious enough question to raise but one which is impossible to predict. For the next three days, 24 of the world’s top golfers will be going through every emotion, all in pursuit of leading Europe to glory.
The match-play format, bringing the leading Europeans together with their counterparts from the United States, adds to the excitement. It also, ordinarily, leads to exceptional golf.
Paul McGinley, the European captain, has primed his team and devised a plan to the best of his ability, all in the hope of helping Europe to an eighth Ryder Cup in ten at Gleneagles. He will also be desperate to avoid being the first European captain to lose on home soil for the first time in 21 years.
But in suggesting ‘anything can happen’ because this is the ‘very pinnacle of world sport’ he is certainly not banking on celebratory scenes on Sunday night. Such are the high standards set by those taking part, there is not a statistic out there which can guarantee an outcome.
The bottom line is that the ball-striking from tee to green differs very little between the players, so it will just come down to who is at the top of their putting game and who deals with the occasion. This will be what matters most and how the teams compare.
HOME ADVANTAGE
In many respects, this is the most important. McGinley and European Tour chiefs have been responsible for setting up Gleneagles, so expect it to suit the hosts. Does it mean a sure defeat for USA? Not a chance.
Last week Celtic Manor was fine-tuned for the Wales Open to provide a similar threat to that faced on the fairways over the next few days. But only four of the Europeans were in attendance in Newport, while none of the Americans paid a visit.
Resting might actually be a greater benefit, but the four who played at Celtic Manor – Lee Westwood, Thomas Bjorn, Jamie Donaldson and Stephen Gallacher – could prove to be major assets.
Since 1993, home teams have averaged 14.4 points and away teams around the 13.6 mark, but that counted for nothing two years ago when Europe turned things around to win in Medinah.
THE MEMORY OF MEDINAH
THE American side of 2012 were on the wrong end of one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of sport. At one point USA led 10-4 and even by the end of the second day they still held a four-point advantage in Illinois, so it had looked as if Europe’s grip on the trophy was disappearing.
Yet Jose Maria Olazabal’s players somehow turned on the style on singles Sunday, charging to an unlikely 14.5-13.5 victory, sparking incredible scenes at the Chicago course. But what relevance is there to Gleneagles?
Seven of the American team in Medinah, smarting from what happened, are in Scotland to try to make amends. Regardless of whether Tom Watson does his job properly, those players will be desperate to give their European counterparts a taste of what it feels like to lose at home.
RYDER CUP EXPERIENCE
DESPITE boasting three rookies each, there is also an incredible amount of experience around. If there is an edge it is with Europe because the Americans have endured defeat more often. McGinley’s men know how to win.
Europe boasts 128 Ryder Cup matches between its players, with United States six short of that, although Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson account for 68 of their team’s alone. Cap-wise, European players tally up a combined 31 caps dating back to when Lee Westwood made his first outing alongside Nick Faldo in Valderrama in 1997. America have 29.
The big difference comes in terms of Ryder Cup wins. The American players have only won 43 of their 122 matches as oppose to Europe’s total of 69. Experience and home advantage combined points to a European win.
WORLD RANKINGS
IT would be easy to suggest the United States can win because they have the greater world ranking average in their team. There is very little between them, granted, but such a statistic rubbishes the theory that the visitors are the clear underdogs.
The last five Ryder Cups have been won by the team with the lowest average rankings, so Europe (20) are well placed again; just as they were two years ago when the USA (16) boasted 11 of the world’s top 17.
Watson also has more players accustomed to dealing with the pressure of winning big events. While Europe have eight major winners (McIlroy 4, Kaymer 2, McDowell, Rose), USA have 11 (Mickelson 5, Watson 2, Furyk, Johnson, Simpson, Bradley). If form comes in to it, Europe have won three of this year’s majors.
THE POSTMAN
SPEAKING of form, Ian Poulter should not even be anywhere near Gleneagles. But how, really, could he be ignored?
The Postman, how he has become affectionately known during Ryder Cup week, keeps delivering on the Ryder Cup stage and has been included by McGinley for no other reason.
This is a golfer who has dropped to 38th in the rankings and missed more cuts than secured top ten finishes this year, and yet has been given a wild card pick. Considering his record it is understandable, his 12 wins and three defeats from his 15 matches is incredible.
If he finds his rhythm again in the heat of the Ryder Cup atmosphere, Europe could well be heading for another glorious Sunday ... but it’s impossible to predict.
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