EXTREME summer rainfall may become more frequent in the UK due to climate change, according to new research led by Newcastle University and the Met Office.

The new study, from the joint Met Office and National Environmental Research Council-funded CONVEX project, was led by Newcastle University's Professor Hayley Fowler.

It used a state-of-the-art climate model which provided the first evidence that hourly summer rainfall rates could increase.

While summers are expected to become drier overall by 2100, intense rainfall indicative of serious flash flooding could become several times more frequent.

The results from the study, published in Nature Climate Change, are the first step towards building a more complete picture of how UK rainfall may change as our climate warms.

Prof Fowler said: "The changes we have found are consistent with increases we would expect in extreme rainfall with increasing temperatures and will mean more flash floods."

Dr Lizzie Kendon, lead author of the research at the Met Office, said: “Until now, climate models haven’t been able to simulate how extreme hourly rainfall might change in future. The very high resolution model used in this study allows us to examine these changes for the first time.”

As the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture and this is expected to intensify rainfall. However, research is needed to understand what this might mean for extremes and how this might affect the UK.

In winter it is the daily or multi-day rainfall totals that are important, because the UK tends to get steady, long-lasting periods of rain from large scale weather systems – similar to those seen during the winter floods of 2013/14.

In summer, however, it is the hourly rates that are more important as rain tends to fall in short but intense bursts – as seen during the ‘Toon Flood’, in Newcastle in 2012.