2015 has no doubt been an eventful year around the world.
Global stability has been stretched by the actions of terrorist group ISIS, and ongoing geopolitical tensions between key geographic regions such as Ukraine-Russia and China-Japan.
The proponents of regional spill overs has rocked the macroeconomic environment, and taken its toll on global stock markets.
Other key issues include responses to climate change, and more pressingly, environmental concerns over a potential crisis in the world’s water supply.
Despite all these issues at the forefront of global leader debates, what issues will shape 2016, and be the subject of discussion at the global debates at the end of next year?
2016 will see the opening of a third set of locks on the Panama Canal, presidential elections in the US and Taiwan, and the Summer Olympics in Brazil.
Closer to home, the Brexit referendum will play an important part as to the stability of the UK, just as the Scottish referendum did in 2014.
With these global events, the world economy is shaping up to be stronger than 2015, with global growth predicted to be at 3.6 per cent, compared to 3.1 per cent seen this year, measured using the real purchasing power of national currencies.
A large part in achieving this growth will be played out by China, who saw their economy gradually slow throughout 2015.
Third quarter figures showed the economy had slowed to 6.9 per cent, down from seven per cent in the first and second quarters of 2015.
Developing nations still rely heavily on China for their resources, however, demand is faltering causing Chinese exporters to cut production and infrastructure developments.
Global oil prices are even less predictable, as the commodity still remains relatively cheap.
Influenced by everything from terrorist activities to OPEC politics across the Middle-East, some economists predict the price of crude could drop below $40 a barrel in 2016.
While supply is high, the price will continue to fall, and it is only when the supply is cut, that the price should start to return to the norm.
We have already seen the low price depress production and exploration rates, so oil bulls remain positive that these cuts will return the supply/demand equilibrium to the norm, eventually leading to a rise in the oil price.
We can’t discuss the economic prospects of 2016 without referencing the US.
While economists look eagerly towards the Federal Reserve, interest rate hikes remain at the forefront of global economic debates.
The Fed has already delayed its first anticipated hike to the end of next year, with the slim chance that they could push it back even further to 2017, particularly as the US public have seen their household incomes fall 1.7 per cent to a level last seen pre-2000.
Unemployment rates stood at 5.1 per cent in October 2015, and as the US economy remains in recovery mode following the 2007 financial crisis, it is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels any time soon.
A final mention should go to Europe, and the impending 2016 Brexit vote in the UK.
With the Greek financial crisis out of the headlines (for now), Europe’s refugee crisis is an additional stress for the EU.
Arguably, the crisis could help GDPs across the countries involved, as Government support given to refugees could stimulate spending across domestic services and products.
However, 2016 will by no means see an end to the global inequalities in wealth, and it is up to the global leaders to continue their work in solving these issues through the coming months and years.
Oliver York is a trainee investment manager at Newcastle-based wealth firm Brewin Dolphin.
The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily the views held throughout Brewin Dolphin. No director, representative or employee of Brewin Dolphin accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or its contents. Any tax allowances or thresholds mentioned are based on personal circumstances and current legislation which is subject to change.
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