AS I’m writing this, and it’s last week by the way, Friday to be precise, the banking sector, the whole European banking sector, is driving markets upwards for today at least.

This is mainly because the US government has announced that the results of stress tests on banks there, to see if they could withstand further shocks, brought no scares.

Leaving aside the fact that regulators ordered the top US finance houses to raise “only” $75bn to withstand further shocks to the system, the waters appear to be (whisper it) calming in the banking sector. Don’t they?

Well on the face of it, yes they do. The FTSE 350 Banking sector has slightly more than doubled since its March 9 nadir. There are five banks in that index.

That is startling and encouraging, when you consider that markets tend to show us where we should be in roughly 12 to 18 months from now.

But, in my opinion, exuberance must be tempered, at least for now.

Barclays announced a quarterly pre-tax profit of £1.37bn for January to March. All well and good, but bad debt charges rose £2.3bn.

Analysts believe that bad debt charges for Lloyds this year could be as much as £14bn.

Royal Bank of Scotland’s chief executive sees loan losses rising through this year and next.

Both Lloyds and RBS reported first-quarter losses last week.

But this was surely to be expected.

It will take months for the full extent of losses on bad debts to unravel, and the market is looking past this at present.

If some banks may remain loss-making for some months yet, then how can the dramatic rises in their share prices be justified Well, that is because the share prices of some were until recently discounting their not surviving.

Whereas the sheer volume of news emanating from the banks of late has been significant, it is not just commercial banks that are making noises, Central Banks are getting in on the act too.

The Bank of England, seemingly enjoying fulfilling the role of the retail banks’ miserable patriarch, has just, like the pessimist that reminds their friends on Friday night that Monday will come soon enough, stated that the global financial system remains “fragile”.

But this is not the Central Bank frivolously raining on the retail banks parade; it is mere statement of fact. And anyway, roll the clock back, say, six months and the word “fragile” could have been accurately replaced by “desperate”.

And this is the important thing. While banks are not set for stellar profit growth yet, they are stable, and we should be thankful for this fact given how dire the situation appeared in recent memory.

I believe a bit of a downward correction will happen at some stage, not just in banks, but for the market as a whole.

After what has gone before, it is no surprise that most of the sectors hit hardest by fear and panic in 2007 and last year have shot up now based on relief, exuberance and plain just not wanting to miss the boat.

A correction would be healthy, not something to be feared. Put very simplistically, it acts as a reality check.

* Nick Williams is an investment advisor in the Teesside office of Brewin Dolphin, and can be contacted on 0845-213-1340. All prices quoted in the article are from public sources. The views expressed are not necessarily held throughout the Brewin Dolphin Group. You should bear in mind that no investment is suitable for all circumstances and it is important to seek expert advice if in any doubt.

Brewin Dolphin Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.