WITH mock incredulity, David Dimbleby announced on Question Time that the Twitter-verse had pleaded; don’t talk about Donald Trump or Theresa May’s Brexit plan.
Scoffing at the notion, he went straight into the first question about US and UK relations and blind eyes.
There is an interesting thought – is it possible to get through a column about 2017’s economic outlook without mentioning these topics?
Let’s try…
A 900 point rise in the FTSE 100 Index to more than 7,100 by the end of 2016 puts us in an interesting position as we enter February.
We haven’t made much ground so far this year but we haven’t lost any either. So what happens next?
The fall of the oil price was effectively a global tax cut in 2016 with heightened economic demand driven by low energy prices undoubtedly key.
The oil price is still at half the level it was when it fell off its cliff so this trend should continue, albeit more modestly.
However, go too high and it can have the opposite effect.
2016 also saw the US and Japan reach “full employment”, the level at which higher wages are now needed to tempt people into the work force, thus driving up wage growth.
The UK should join them this year. Europe is still some way off.
Elections in Europe will be the next topic to attract the headlines.
The Dutch election gets us underway on the Ides (15th) of March and it could be a case of “Et Tu Geert Wilders”, with the ‘Dutch you know who’ - monikered due to his policies and shared hair style - looking likely to oust the sitting Prime minister.
Current polls think his Eurosceptic Freedom Party will not have enough support to make a majority.
And they are never wrong, right?
Later in the spring, it is France’s turn to go to the ballot box.
Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s Front National looks likely to be runner-up, but again, the idea of electoral shocks is becoming less shocking.
Some may be thinking that Europe offers an opportunity in 2017 given how investors have scarpered from the region since last summer’s you know what vote.
At Brewin, our stance is neutral but we remain observant and conscious that the numerous walls of worry – metaphorical ones for now – facing Europe could provide an opportunity to turn more bullish in the future.
Inflation will play a role that, due to the production cuts of oil-producing countries and extreme lows, could hit three per cent this year.
This means that incomes are going to have to rise quicker to keep up, a likely negative.
The path of the weakened pound in 2017 will be influenced by the relative movement of interest rates but for now, the Bank of England is worrying about how the economy behaves once Article 50 is actually triggered.
In the US, however, three more interest rates rises are expected in 2017 meaning the dollar is likely to rise – something that is traditionally a headwind for the economy.
Rising interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher oil prices could all collude to stymie economic growth and therefore we may see spirits dampened in the coming months.
However, the underlying trend for global economic growth remains positive and the gradual return to stable growth could be the real drive of returns in 2017.
And I can’t think of anything special that May-Trump that.
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